Category Archives: Economic

Integrated Urbanism – Massachusetts & the United Kingdom Partnership Forum

Introduction
Good afternoon Governor Patrick, visiting delegates and colleagues from the UK. As a recent resident of Massachusetts myself, it is a special pleasure to speak alongside the Governor on the subject of data and cities: and to share some remarks on the common interest in this room: the science of cities.

Massachusetts and the United Kingdom Partnership Forum

A few words about me: I am an architect and an urban planner in private practice. My company, Space Syntax is a consulting company that specialises in predictive analytics - using data science to forecast the impact of urban planning decisions – the “what goes where and how does it all connect together” – on urban impacts such as mobility, interaction, wealth, health and personal safety.

Slide2

 

Our motivation is to use science to design great places to live. It’s a combination of data crunching and creative visioning.

Slide3

 

I am currently assisting the UK Government Office for Science on a major Foresight project on the Future of Cities. We are looking 25 and 50 years ahead to imagine how people might be living and what kinds of cities will be there for them to live in. The Government Office for Science is headed by Sir Mark Walport, the Government Chief Scientific Advisor.  He provides advice directly to the Prime Minister and the Cabinet on the science that can assist in the consideration of national policy. Our aim is to inform policymaking in the short term that can benefit social, economic and environmental outcomes in the long run.

Slide4

 

Our work within GO-Science (edged there in red) sits within the UK ecosystem on Smart and Future Cities – a vibrant marketplace for the science of cities.

Let me say a few words about how we are going about this.

First, last and everywhere in between, we are interested in people. Cities manage relations between people – the ways they move and how they interact – to social and economic ends. Everything else about cities – the roads, tunnels, pipes and ducts – provide the life-support. But people provide the life itself – so they are our prime focus.

Drivers
Living in cities is subject to key drivers including:

- climate change

- resource availability and

- population growth.

On the latter, the Office for National Statistics forecasts a range of possible population changes that include significant increases for the UK overall. Under such circumstances the questions of where people will be living, and how they will be connected, are big ones.

Opportunities
We are also aware of the special circumstances in which these drivers operate, not least the opportunities brought about by:

1. technology: making profound new things possible: sensing, visualising and analysing data, and by

2. a growing recognition that cities are solutions to problems. Ed Glaeser of Harvard University sets out the powerful economic case for cities in his book, “Triumph of the City”, namely that cities are very effective:

- crucibles of innovation – bright ideas come from cities, are nurtured in cities, and find applications in cities, which are also

- economic machines, and

- generators of rich social networks.

And then, perhaps greatest of all,

- cities are inspirers and sustainers of cultural activities: music, theatre and the arts generally.

Describing a city
So how do cities do this? How do you go about describing a city?

The Future of Cities team is developing a definition and you may well be able to help us with it.

When cities work well, they are dynamic, multi-faceted entities working simultaneously across multiple scales.

But – only when they are connected. Physically, spatially and digitally.

Slide5

 

It is perhaps so obvious as to have gone unnoticed for too long, that historic cities – the places we like to visit when we go on holiday, the places we choose to work in if we can – are connected cities: Barcelona, Florence, London here…Harvard Square. Connected for walking and cycling at a local scale as well as for driving through on a larger scale. Continuously connected – without great severances.

Too often, almost always, the new, planned city has been divided by the freeway. And too many historic places have been severed by great, new roads. Boston’s Big Dig has restored and transformed the city’s spatial connections. Cities worldwide are looking at Boston as an example of how to fix their discontinuous infrastructure because the interaction of car-dependent transport systems with local needs in these cities is too often out of balance.

Slide6

 

Connectivity was the watchword of the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games – finding routes that would connect the new Queen Elizabeth Park to communities either side of it. This was a theme echoed in the Opening Ceremony of the Olympic Games where a great map of London’s street network formed the stage on which the athletes paraded.

Slide7

 

Thinking about cities
So, in thinking about cities we need to understand these connections. The interactions between transport, leisure, industry and living; infrastructure planning and societal outcomes; on economics, health, crime and biodiversity.

To do so, the Future of Cities project is taking a systems approach. In two ways:

1. examining the interactions between the various city systems I just mentioned

2. examining the interactions between the system of UK cities.

We are using the best evidence and data modelling available to do so.

Forecasting the future
We are then setting about forecasting the future by taking a Scenarios approach, using three basic techniques:

1. “Trends projection” – in other words, what happens if we get more of the same as we’ve seen in recent years

2. “Aspirational design” – what would we wish the future to be like? Then, by backcasting – what do we need to do to reach those end goals?

3. “Plausible extremes” – given various kinds of infrastructure capacities – how much, of what, could be accommodated where?

And as well as the “What goes where?” and “How does it connect?” we are also looking at the “Who decides?” questions of governance and “Who pays?” aspects of finance.

Emerging themes
To close, let me leave you with some of our emerging themes:

1. Place-making – not housebuilding. We need houses of course – but we need neighbourhoods and mixed-use communities too. Places of work and leisure located within places of living. And this is a message that I have heard not only throughout the UK but also in Boston on a recent visit to discuss the future of your great city.

2. the skills of leadership, analysis, financing, planning and design to deliver these complex, multi-faceted entities we call cities. Skills that include an understanding of connectivity and interdependence – skills that integrate the disciplines that our institutions so often divide.

We need to start young. I had the pleasure of seeing my children educated at Kennedy-Longfellow school in Cambridge, where they were a short distance away from MIT – and their educators made use of this walkable connectivity to expose those young learners to that great place.

Slide8

 

This is only possible when you have connected, mixed-use cities.

It leads to serendipity. To ideas that hadn’t been thought of before. It’s a safeguard for the future of economies and the cultures they exist within.

The question is: can the serendipity of cities be understood by science in ways that it can be better harnessed by those that plan, finance and govern them?

This is the challenge for those of us in the room today, a massive scientific opportunity that needs a “Big Science” approach.

We call this the “Age of Algorithms” – and it certainly is exciting to be part of the effort. But terms like this can be alien to city dwellers looking for shelter, for employment, for safety and for the comfort of a community. The way forward, I believe, is to direct scientific effort towards that most complex and rewarding of challenges: how we live in cities.

Thank you.

Building a Smart City modelling team

Integrated Urban Model

.

Cities planning their future are increasingly turning to the production of Integrated Urban Models. These are tools that bring together various datasets on different asoects of urban performance, from the behaviour of people to the flows of energy, water and other utilities. The aim is to better predict the future of cities by better understanding how they are currently working.

This is a nascent but rapidly developing field in which knowledge is emerging and evolving at a pace. Given the complexity of cities it is a good idea to involve many specialists in different subjects, led by an Urban Modelling Advisory Panel (UrbanMAP).  I suggest the UrbanMAP, like any good team, is made up of 11 people, comprising:

1.    a transport technologist with expertise in walk/bike as well as road/transit

2.    an infrastructure engineer with utilities capacity expertise

3.    a real estate economist with expertise in locational analytics/spatial economics (housing & jobs)

4.    an environmental planning specialist with expertise in the analysis of on-land, on-water and in-air phenomena

5.    a construction expert

6.    a health expert

7.    an anthropologist with expertise in the technological analysis of human behaviour and cultural identity

8.    an architect/urban planner/designer with expertise in the creative use of technology

9.    a social media technologist with expertise in semantic analysis of online content

10.    a data integration specialist with expertise in statistical/correlational analysis and predictive analytics

11.    a visualisation specialist with expertise in both 2D and 3D representation.

The group should meet regularly, evolving the vision of the model and the brief for its creation by other consultants.

It should be chaired – or captained – like any good team, by a creative all-rounder: the architect at No.8, whose role is to resolve complexity through elegant and resource-efficient means.

Space Syntax has created an Integrated Urban Model structure to take clients and stakeholders on the “data journey”. We engage stakeholders throughout the process of gathering, visualising and analysing data feeds, then forming ideas and measuring the impact of these. Our experience is that people then develop greater confidence in, and ownership of, the actions that ultimately follow.

Case study
Darwin City Centre Masterplan

What exactly is human scale?

Darwin masterplanDarwin City Centre Masterplan, Space Syntax

For too long, architects and urban planners have pursued the myth that human scale means “local” scale. In doing so, they have downscaled space, thinking that by fragmenting and disconnecting towns and cities into small enclaves they would be creating “community”. They were wrong.

Isolated and disconnected, people on inner -city housing estates, new towns and sprawling housing developments have found it hard to form social networks. To engage with the outside world. To be human.

And this form of urban planning prevails, being exported to developing cities worldwide.

In contrast, human scale is a combination of the local and the global, acting simultaneously on the individual. We are, unsurprisingly, more sophisticated than we were given credit for.

What do I mean? Well, consider having a doorstep conversation with a neighbour while watching the world go by on your street, or a coffee with a friend on the High Street. These are simultaneous local:global experiences.

Space Syntax analysis identifies the places where shops are most likely to locate in historic towns and cities. Using network models to study patterns of street connectivity, we find that shops are usually in locations that are simultaneously embedded in both local and global movement networks. Where everyday movement criss-crosses, be that local, short-distance movement or larger distance, global movement.

We call this “multi-scale” analysis and the places it identifies are multi-scale places.

Human behaviour is no mystery when the right kind of science is directed towards its understanding.

And the key finding for the creation of future urban settlement is that we need to think more globally. To connect more. To embrace the outside world more. To create more multi-scale places.

To make places work more effectively at the local scale we need to connect them more effectively at the global.

We need to see the human scale as a multi-scale phenomenon.

Centres and Cities

I’m sure you’re right about the link between street morphology and attractiveness to business. Centres seem to do one of three things through time. They either:

1. consolidate and grow (London, Paris)

2. move (Jeddah)

3. implode (Sunderland).

Oh, and some places:

4. never have a functioning centre (Skelmersdale, UK New Towns) because they were designed in ignorance of the importance of a) grid continuity and b) multi-scale centrality – properties measured by Space Syntax models

or

5. divide and reunite (Berlin) but we can’t blame the architects for that!

Email to Paul Swinney at the Centre for Cities

Smart City Planning & Design Principles

Smart Cities are smart in two ways. First, they harness technologies to improve the way that urban places are led and managed. Second, they create better outcomes for the people that use them. This two-pronged approach applies to all aspects of Smart Cities.

When it comes to the planning and design of Smart Cities, technology can improve:

1. the performance of the places that are produced by planning and design (the outcomes)

2. the processes involved in creating plans and designs (the inputs).

A Smart City approach should direct the capabilities of urban planners and designers to:

1. facilitate effective human transaction in new and existing places

2. provide access to places of transaction, both physical and digital: on-land and on-line

3. support the mobility required to access these places of transaction by providing networks of connectivity for all modes of transport, both physical (walking cycling rolling driving) and digital

4. take an outcomes-oriented (ie transactions & emissions) approach first and foremost, aware of the inputs required (ie materials, energy & mobility) to achieve these desired objectives

5. provide effective analytic and forecasting tools aimed at social economic and environmental impacts.

Integrated Urban Modelling – Space Syntax’s approach

I’ve written before about the benefits of using science-based models in the planning and design process. I’ve raised concerns about the frequent lack of objective analysis in urban and building projects, and the risks this creates in decision-taking. Basing important decisions on gut instinct and experience, then willing on success with little more than hype, just isn’t good enough.

Integrated Urban Model

Here is a diagram that summarises Space Syntax’s approach to urban modelling. It’s a staged process: collecting datasets; analysing them to identify relationships between urban form and urban performance; drawing out key issues and developing creative ideas – all the time using the model to test proposals. The approach is transparent and communicative – helping stakeholders participate in the process and, most importantly, helping people take decisions that lead to actions and changed behaviours.

It’s more than a pipedream – we’ve been using the model on projects for over 25 years, evolving it through continuous application. And we’ll continue to do so, adapting to the ever richer data context that digital urbanism provides.

And always remembering that the ultimate objective is the creation of behaviour change to the benefit of human wealth, health and education.

Download the presentation